I like a transfer rumour as much as the man next door. I love the reactions that it can draw from a fan.
The reactions vary from happiness and smugness to worry and disbelief.
Some deals are completed in total secrecy, some are done openly.
But I also like to take rumours with a pinch of salt and analyse them.
Well, I also have the benefit of having some inside information in most cases, but believe me; nothing is done until the name is signed on that dotted line.
I work with a network of people who have access to information in clubs via members of the board, the Manager, some players.
So I can choose to use this information in two ways.
One will be to disclose any names as soon as I get hold of them, and the other is to keep it for a bit longer, analyse the possibilities of that rumour becoming true, and then put it out in the open.
I choose to do the second one. And we still get it wrong sometimes.
Clubs may have decided to buy or sell somebody, and even if the sources are believable, sometimes negotiations don’t come to fruition, but it does not mean that they did not happen or the information was false.
Not many clubs will come out and tell you: “we have negotiated for 2 weeks for such and such player, but we could not thrash a deal”, they much rather simplify it and say, “we were never interested in him” or “he is not a player we are looking at”.
Now that all the clarifications are in place, I am going to tell you what we have been hearing and digesting over the last few weeks and tell you rationally if we think it could or could not happen.
Most are South American players seeking new clubs or being targeted by new teams round the globe.
Napoli:
As we have been telling you for a while, despite all the competition from richer clubs, they have just completed the signing of Eduardo Vargas, 22, from “la U” from Chile.
He has been on a rich vain of form for club and country. Over all, a great signing.
They managed to sign him, because they are going to allow Vargas to stay in Chile until the summer, which some other pursuers were not prepared to do.
But Napoli already has 3 strikers that are world class you may think: Lavezzi, Cavani, Hamsik.
Well Cavani is rumoured to be fancied by many big clubs and due to move (see that is rumour, unconfirmed). Chelsea seems to be the favourite, but there are also, Real Madrid and others chasing the dangerous Uruguay player.
Lavezzi, was close to leaving last summer, due to non football related that may require him to leave the town (if not the country), in order to be resolved.
Last summer suitors Zenit St Petersburgh, are likely to return for him. Their manager is Luciano Spalletti, former manager of Roma, who knows Pocho very well and is backed up with a club willing to spend.
There is also talk (but nothing concrete) of Inter Milan, Manchester City and Chelsea, and even some Spanish sides like Atletico Madrid and Valencia.
Napoli has also, nearly guaranteed the signing of an 18 years old Argentinean striker who is tipped as the new sensation. Paulo Dybala. Like with Vargas, they are prepared to let him stay with his club Instituto until the summer.
Our verdict: Two in and two out. Cavani and Lavezzi to leave.
Inter Milan:
Well what a season so far for the Milan giants. They are not enjoying a great time in Serie A. They have had a very slow start. They employed a Manager during the summer that made his own signings and shaped the team to his liking. The problem is that the results did not go according to plan and that Manager is not longer there. The new man in Claudio Ranieri, is sure to want some players out and some new in.
In a conversation I had with Inter’s top Guy, Massimo Moratti, last summer, he made it clear that in January, if they needed players in, there needed to be some players out.
Inter’s team are getting a little old, and they are in need of a generational change.
January could be the last opportunity to get good money for Wesley Sneijder.
We think that Manchester United may have one more go to try and get a player Sir Alex has been chasing for a while.
But back to the Italians they are ready to tempt Colombian James Rodriguez, from Porto. Inter needs proven players, but also young and Rodriguez fits that bill perfectly, with Champions league experience and at only 20 the midfielder/winger can be a real asset for a long time to come.
A certain to leave, and a great chance that it will happen in January is Diego Milito, who is in the radar of his former club Genoa.
Inter are likely to complete a total renewal in the summer when Maicon, Cambiasso, and the rest of the old guard will be put on the transfer list.
Manchester United:
We have already mentioned Sneijder, and that should be the only big name they will be chasing in January. However, the Old Trafford club are planning to add more in the summer
After playing Benfica, in this season Champions League, Ferguson, sent scouts to watch Argentinean midfielder Nicolas Gaitan, in 2 portuguese league games (against Naval and Sporting Lisbon) and the reports were glowing but in those scouting missions the spies also reported another player, Spanish defensive midfielder Javier Garcia, who could be a great addition, should the Sneijder deal fall through.
The problems with the 2 Benfica players are as follows: Gaitan has a €34m release clause to his contract, and MUFC don’t value him that high (however Benfica are ready to negotiate), also Valencia has expressed an interest in Gaitan.
Regarding Garcia, he has no release clause, but his former club Real Madrid, has first refusal on the player, and they are thinking about it.
Also watch this space for AC Milan’s interest in Nani. They are serious, as they are running out of patience with Pato.
Verdict: Sneijder (January) and Gaitan (Summer) in.
River Plate:
In: already Trezeguet. Now there are many possibilities. If Maidana leaves (Pasarella will make every effort to keep him), Gabriel Heinze will be his replacement. Crazy as it sounds, el gringo, has some issues that may require him to return to the country, and his playing time in Roma is not as high as he was expecting anyway.
Another name making the maybe list is Rolfi Montenegro, but we believe that after the Trezeguet signing there is no room for someone like Montenegro in the team.
Ponzio from Zaragoza is a strong possibility. The defensive midfielder plays in a position where reinforcements are neede and his contract runs out in the summer, so he could arrive then for free.
Another River target is Fernando Belluschi, a midfielder, currently playing for Porto in Portugal, but we believe he is not within River’s budget.
Another former player linked to the Millonarios is Andres D'Alessandro, but his club Inter de Porto Alegre do not want to know until June2012.
In the selling front Chelsea have the youngster Ocampos as a target for the summer, but River has slapped a €17m price tag on the 17 years old.
Boca Juniors:
Fresh from winning the Apertura title, Boca will be playing continental football as well as the local league, so they will need a bigger squad.
Names linked with them, but nothing confirmed just yet are: Boselli (formerly with Wigan and currently with Estudiantes), Pablo Ledesma (Catania) and the biggest name of them all Carlos Tevez.
Velez:
They have started concrete efforts to bring el tanque Silva back to the club from Fiorentina.
San Lorenzo:
A team in a lot of relegation trouble will be looking to get one player per line. The only two they have had contact with are German Voboril whose registration belongs to the club, but is on loan at Godoy Cruz.
The other is Gonzalo Berghesio, who plays with Catania. I spoke to the Striker, and he said that he is very happy in Italy and Europe and is not planning to return to Argentina just yet.
Two Brazilian clubs are looking for Argentinean players to strengthen their teams:
Cruzeiro:
Are in talks about selling Montillo, and if the sell goes through they will look to bring Pablo Aimar from Benfica.
Vasco:
They have already contacted Independiente for Parra.
Last but not least two Spanish clubs will be fighting to sign Teo Gutierrez from Racing Club.
Espanyol and Atletico Madrid know that the Argentinean team need to sell players as they are in huge debt, and they only own 35% of Teo’s registration.
Also Atletico are thinking about offering Diego Simeone, the Manager’s position.
Simeone is an icon in the Spanish club, who achieved hero status there as a player when he captain the team to La Liga’s Title.
Hope we have given you some food for thought. There are many many more rumours but it is impossible to put them all in one report
The reactions vary from happiness and smugness to worry and disbelief.
Some deals are completed in total secrecy, some are done openly.
But I also like to take rumours with a pinch of salt and analyse them.
Well, I also have the benefit of having some inside information in most cases, but believe me; nothing is done until the name is signed on that dotted line.
I work with a network of people who have access to information in clubs via members of the board, the Manager, some players.
So I can choose to use this information in two ways.
One will be to disclose any names as soon as I get hold of them, and the other is to keep it for a bit longer, analyse the possibilities of that rumour becoming true, and then put it out in the open.
I choose to do the second one. And we still get it wrong sometimes.
Clubs may have decided to buy or sell somebody, and even if the sources are believable, sometimes negotiations don’t come to fruition, but it does not mean that they did not happen or the information was false.
Not many clubs will come out and tell you: “we have negotiated for 2 weeks for such and such player, but we could not thrash a deal”, they much rather simplify it and say, “we were never interested in him” or “he is not a player we are looking at”.
Now that all the clarifications are in place, I am going to tell you what we have been hearing and digesting over the last few weeks and tell you rationally if we think it could or could not happen.
Most are South American players seeking new clubs or being targeted by new teams round the globe.
Napoli:
As we have been telling you for a while, despite all the competition from richer clubs, they have just completed the signing of Eduardo Vargas, 22, from “la U” from Chile.
He has been on a rich vain of form for club and country. Over all, a great signing.
They managed to sign him, because they are going to allow Vargas to stay in Chile until the summer, which some other pursuers were not prepared to do.
But Napoli already has 3 strikers that are world class you may think: Lavezzi, Cavani, Hamsik.
Well Cavani is rumoured to be fancied by many big clubs and due to move (see that is rumour, unconfirmed). Chelsea seems to be the favourite, but there are also, Real Madrid and others chasing the dangerous Uruguay player.
Lavezzi, was close to leaving last summer, due to non football related that may require him to leave the town (if not the country), in order to be resolved.
Last summer suitors Zenit St Petersburgh, are likely to return for him. Their manager is Luciano Spalletti, former manager of Roma, who knows Pocho very well and is backed up with a club willing to spend.
There is also talk (but nothing concrete) of Inter Milan, Manchester City and Chelsea, and even some Spanish sides like Atletico Madrid and Valencia.
Napoli has also, nearly guaranteed the signing of an 18 years old Argentinean striker who is tipped as the new sensation. Paulo Dybala. Like with Vargas, they are prepared to let him stay with his club Instituto until the summer.
Our verdict: Two in and two out. Cavani and Lavezzi to leave.
Inter Milan:
Well what a season so far for the Milan giants. They are not enjoying a great time in Serie A. They have had a very slow start. They employed a Manager during the summer that made his own signings and shaped the team to his liking. The problem is that the results did not go according to plan and that Manager is not longer there. The new man in Claudio Ranieri, is sure to want some players out and some new in.
In a conversation I had with Inter’s top Guy, Massimo Moratti, last summer, he made it clear that in January, if they needed players in, there needed to be some players out.
Inter’s team are getting a little old, and they are in need of a generational change.
January could be the last opportunity to get good money for Wesley Sneijder.
We think that Manchester United may have one more go to try and get a player Sir Alex has been chasing for a while.
But back to the Italians they are ready to tempt Colombian James Rodriguez, from Porto. Inter needs proven players, but also young and Rodriguez fits that bill perfectly, with Champions league experience and at only 20 the midfielder/winger can be a real asset for a long time to come.
A certain to leave, and a great chance that it will happen in January is Diego Milito, who is in the radar of his former club Genoa.
Inter are likely to complete a total renewal in the summer when Maicon, Cambiasso, and the rest of the old guard will be put on the transfer list.
Manchester United:
We have already mentioned Sneijder, and that should be the only big name they will be chasing in January. However, the Old Trafford club are planning to add more in the summer
After playing Benfica, in this season Champions League, Ferguson, sent scouts to watch Argentinean midfielder Nicolas Gaitan, in 2 portuguese league games (against Naval and Sporting Lisbon) and the reports were glowing but in those scouting missions the spies also reported another player, Spanish defensive midfielder Javier Garcia, who could be a great addition, should the Sneijder deal fall through.
The problems with the 2 Benfica players are as follows: Gaitan has a €34m release clause to his contract, and MUFC don’t value him that high (however Benfica are ready to negotiate), also Valencia has expressed an interest in Gaitan.
Regarding Garcia, he has no release clause, but his former club Real Madrid, has first refusal on the player, and they are thinking about it.
Also watch this space for AC Milan’s interest in Nani. They are serious, as they are running out of patience with Pato.
Verdict: Sneijder (January) and Gaitan (Summer) in.
River Plate:
In: already Trezeguet. Now there are many possibilities. If Maidana leaves (Pasarella will make every effort to keep him), Gabriel Heinze will be his replacement. Crazy as it sounds, el gringo, has some issues that may require him to return to the country, and his playing time in Roma is not as high as he was expecting anyway.
Another name making the maybe list is Rolfi Montenegro, but we believe that after the Trezeguet signing there is no room for someone like Montenegro in the team.
Ponzio from Zaragoza is a strong possibility. The defensive midfielder plays in a position where reinforcements are neede and his contract runs out in the summer, so he could arrive then for free.
Another River target is Fernando Belluschi, a midfielder, currently playing for Porto in Portugal, but we believe he is not within River’s budget.
Another former player linked to the Millonarios is Andres D'Alessandro, but his club Inter de Porto Alegre do not want to know until June2012.
In the selling front Chelsea have the youngster Ocampos as a target for the summer, but River has slapped a €17m price tag on the 17 years old.
Boca Juniors:
Fresh from winning the Apertura title, Boca will be playing continental football as well as the local league, so they will need a bigger squad.
Names linked with them, but nothing confirmed just yet are: Boselli (formerly with Wigan and currently with Estudiantes), Pablo Ledesma (Catania) and the biggest name of them all Carlos Tevez.
Velez:
They have started concrete efforts to bring el tanque Silva back to the club from Fiorentina.
San Lorenzo:
A team in a lot of relegation trouble will be looking to get one player per line. The only two they have had contact with are German Voboril whose registration belongs to the club, but is on loan at Godoy Cruz.
The other is Gonzalo Berghesio, who plays with Catania. I spoke to the Striker, and he said that he is very happy in Italy and Europe and is not planning to return to Argentina just yet.
Two Brazilian clubs are looking for Argentinean players to strengthen their teams:
Cruzeiro:
Are in talks about selling Montillo, and if the sell goes through they will look to bring Pablo Aimar from Benfica.
Vasco:
They have already contacted Independiente for Parra.
Last but not least two Spanish clubs will be fighting to sign Teo Gutierrez from Racing Club.
Espanyol and Atletico Madrid know that the Argentinean team need to sell players as they are in huge debt, and they only own 35% of Teo’s registration.
Also Atletico are thinking about offering Diego Simeone, the Manager’s position.
Simeone is an icon in the Spanish club, who achieved hero status there as a player when he captain the team to La Liga’s Title.
Hope we have given you some food for thought. There are many many more rumours but it is impossible to put them all in one report